Post-Fight Analysis of GTR Pre-Fight 

Predictions for 

Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. 

August 25, 2017

 Posted August 27, 2017

Most of GTR's predictions (here) for the Floyd vs. Conor Fight of the Century turned out to be wrong.  

Conor boxed better than expected for the first few rounds, but being in shape for 12 rounds is part of the job. He fell apart after round 7. But at least he tried to make it a real boxing match, respecting the Noble Art. Floyd was Floyd, more so than usual.

It was revealing that Conor, as he admitted, was not expecting and was stumped by Floyd's tactic of walking straight in with his hands up, covering his face. Conor apparently thought Floyd was going to either trade punches, or run. It isn't clear why he would think the former, since Floyd has never done that before, but maybe Conor was counting on Floyd being overconfident. That has happened in boxing plenty of times before.

It didn't happen on August 25. Floyd was confident, right enough, he was, but not overly so. He was as confident as a rational assessment of the relative strengths of the two combatants  justified. 

Conor has good hands for an Ultimate Fighter, and as we saw, can hang in with a top pro for a few rounds. Or at least a top pro with Floyd's patient, passive, defensive, style. But Conor's inexperience and possibly remiss coaching didn't prepare him to anticipate what should have been pretty obvious. Getting close to a taller (or a "reachier" opponent) nullifies his advantage. There are at least two ways to get in. One is to crouch, and bob and wave laterally, while forward stepping, the style made famous by Jack Dempsey, Rocky Marciano, Mike Tyson and lots of Mexicans. Put your forehead on the taller man's chest and don't remove it, was Rocky Marciano's (49-0) advice. It works extremely well, if you can do it.

The other is to walk straight in, hands covering the face. Which is what Floyd did. Since Conor didn't prepare for that, the conclusion was just a matter of time. Only Floyd's "excessive" cautiousness (some critics say), allowed Conor to stay in the ring as long as he did.

Floyd did a certain amount of crouching as well. It proved to be effective. Conor swung and missed, wasting energy. Conor also wasted energy "taking Floyd's back".  Floyd, for his part, freely "gave up his back". You shouldn't do that in MMA, but this was boxing. Duh, you shouldn't do it in boxing either (and the referee even warned Floyd about it several times). You can't hit the opponent in the back, and you can't turn your back to avoid being hit in the front. On the other hand, Conor instinctively shucked Floyd off (made easy because Floyd inexpertly framed on Conor's face in clinches), which put him almost unavoidably on, or near enough, Floyd's back. If that sounds too "technical", watch the video.

Conor says he'd like to fight again. Being Irish, that goes without saying. (Did you know that Muhammad Ali was Irish? It's true: See Thomas Hauser's authorized biography Muhammad Ali, for details).

Here's a suggestion for the promoter. Match Conor with Gennady Golovkin.  That might be an unpleasant experience for Conor however. The only people tougher than Irish are Kazakhstanis. Gennady is Kazakhstani. Conor would get KOed but it would be entertaining for a round or two. Make it happen, Dana!

(c) 2017, Roberto Pedreira. All rights reserved.









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